Syrian Tribes Participate in Uprising

And now another tribal chink in the armor of the Syrian state.

Syrian Tribal Leader Praised Assad at Gunpoint

London, Asharq Al-Awsat – Sheikh Nawaf al-Bashir, head of the prominent Baqara tribe in Syria, revealed that the Syrian authorities forced him to conduct an interview with a Syrian satellite television channel “with a gun to his head”, before releasing him 20 days later. The Baqara tribe is one of the largest tribes in Syria, and estimates indicate that the tribe’s membership stands at 1.2 million Syrian nationals.

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Tribes Getting Restless in Egypt’s Sinai

Bedouin Leaders Threaten Armed Rebellion against Egyptian Government

In light of my piece last week on the failing of the Arab core states, check out this report on rumblings of a tribal rebellion in the Sinai. Stay tuned!

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Failing States: The Real Meaning of the Arab Uprisings

The democratic promise of the poorly named “Arab Spring” is now widely recognized to be a disappointment. Viewed from early 2012, democratic “transitions” seem a pipe dream. Instead of democracy we are witnessing a re-emergence of pre-state loyalty frameworks that call into question the viability of the modern state in today’s Middle East. With the notable exception of the oil monarchies of the Gulf Cooperation Council, where the state can still provide for its citizens, the phenomenon we see today is not democratization, but rather a process of state failure.

Full text: “Failing States: The Real Meaning of the Arab Uprisings” Advancing a Free Society (Hoover Institution, Stanford). January 11, 2012.


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Saudi Succession and Stability

The smooth succession of royals is crucial to the stability of the Saudi oil state. Ever since King Faysal, the Saudi monarchy has alternated branches of the family on the throne in order to maintain a degree of balance between competing royal family factions. This principle is likely to hold true today too, as the kingdom navigates its way from the rule of King Abdullah and the now-deceased Crown Prince Sultan to the rule of Crown Prince and next king, Nayif. The process of balancing and satisfying royal factions depends on patience and conservatism within royal circles. It also requires quiet in the streets of Riyadh and Jedda – and thus far, there are no signs of the so-called ‘Arab Spring’ spreading to Saudi Arabia.

Full text: “Saudi Succession and Stability,” BESA Perspectives, November 1, 2011

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Sunni vs. Shiite in Saudi Arabia

On December 16, the Saudi city of Medina witnessed severe clashes between Sunnis and Shiites. The clashes occurred at the time of the annual Ashura gathering, when Shiites commemorate the martyrdom of Husayn, grandson of the Prophet Muhammad. Although the local press referred only to anonymous mobs, it was clear from international reporting and Saudi Shiite websites that this was a sectarian riot.

Full Text: “Sunni vs. Shiite in Saudi Arabia,” Jerusalem Issue Briefs, January 16, 2011.

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Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the Day of Rage that Wasn’t

While unrest has rattled the Middle East in recent months, Saudi Arabia has taken all necessary measures to maintain stability within its own borders. Its success in doing so stems from two factors: oil wealth and tradition. The royal family has appeased its citizens by pumping more money into the economy and into their pockets. At the same time, religious inclinations as well as a lack of tradition of mass political activity have ingrained in most of the Saudi people a sense of loyalty toward its leadership.

Full Text:“Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the ‘Day of Rage’ that Wasn’t,” BESA Perspectives, No. 135. April 4, 2011.

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